So it has been a while, and I imagine that I will be posting a lot less frequent this year.  One of the things I have decided to do is to live more and blog just slightly less.  Out of the three plus blogs I have the biggest cut (just like bus service) will be my transit blog.  Not that I am any less interested in blogging about transit, but just simply because not that many things change that really validate regular blogging.  We have the same tired Government run transit authorities being manhandled by special interest groups, unions, and Government vote takers.  These same transit authorities run transit, but it is apparent that the priority of transit is often the 4th, 5th, or even lower priority versus just staying afloat via begging for funding and other things.

So I just do not have the motivation to blog about that.  It is, simply, depressing and embarrassing for this nation.

But I will still be blogging about line openings, new bus funding (when/if they happen), line cuts, and other local bits and intercity rail bits.  Also, anytime I am travelling with the ole’ Canon 40D I will be sure to snag any good angles and shoot some material for the blog.  So I will be here, just a little less frequently, so I hope everyone keeps reading.  🙂

Often these days in the transit community we see article after article about how X number of jobs are going to be created.  One of the quotes I’ve seen recently, on LA Metro’s Website for High Speed Rail, states 90,000 jobs created for building the high speed rail (HSR), somehow statewide they theorize 600,000 construction, and 450,000 permanent jobs.  I call bull.

Yes the work will create some jobs.  Some of those will be sustainable ongoing jobs, some will be for a few months.  It might be 90,000 jobs or it most likely would be much less.

However, one thing that is not mentioned is what will happen to all the jobs at the airlines and airport.

Do we really, as a pro-HSR & transit community think that HSR won’t be very disruptive?  When the high speed line between San Francisco to LA, and LA to Orange County and down to San Diego opens, almost every short distance flight within 500 miles will probably disappear.  Why do I say this?  Because it happens over and over and over again when high speed rail, even merely 110mph speed rail service it put into action.  The simple fact is, when a comparable trip can be made by rail people will not get on a airplane.

With that said, and something I just assume will happen, what about the workers in the airline industry?  This goes on the perpetuate the broken window scenario laid out many years ago.  Disruptive and especially destructive changes to the economy are only short term boosts during the repair.  Then the loss actually has to be compensated for and somebody ends up with the short stick.  In this scenario, the high speed rail will be very disruptive, but in the end there will not be a net increase in new jobs.  The airlines will lay off and probably sell or junk most of those short jumper planes.  Meanwhile the high speed passenger rail industry will take in some of those workers, the others will have to go find work elsewhere.

I’m not saying this is a bad thing.  Disruptive technologies, especially like high speed rail, are needed and a great deal in today’s world.  They are cleaner, cheaper over the long term, and provide people a much better traveling experience.  However, this continued bragging and politicking over jobs created is a myth.  Which, in politics simply equates to more lying.

In the end, we end up with no net new jobs from this Government intervention into the market.  It didn’t happen when they where dumping money into the airlines, it won’t happen when they disrupt things to dump money into the high speed rail.  Technically, if they wouldn’t have dumped the money in the first place, the market would have disrupted itself to run higher speed rail in California if the Government had not been dumping billions in to ever competing mode of transport at the time.

The railroads got shafted by the states & Federal Government, and now they’re the Golden Child again.  If the Government wants to have net positive new jobs, that are sustainable and economically feasible, they’re going to have to figure a way to get out of the industry and not be further disruptive in it.  But alas, I know we’re well past those days, but no reason we should accept the lies that the Government through infrastructure spending will somehow save our economy and create new jobs.

It has happened elsewhere, and even here in the US before, don’t fall for it.

It appears that the push for light rail continues throughout many communities.  Even in LA were the Metro was sued in order to increase bus service, is now stuck with trying to move to light rail after laying down BRT in various places.  When capacity is needed, going to BRT is not a smart move.  The Orange Line being a prime example, as a line that prevents ridership because it is at capacity, and was theoretically built because of the lawsuit.  (Wad, maybe you can add some specifics to that for me)  But anyway, look like South LA is bound for the flanged wheel.

But Detroit, is a completely different situation.  They actually have $125 Million in private money that has been put up for their $430 million dollar line.  Currently they’re working on a Federal Match.